The Iraqi police colonel listens as his American counterpart, Maj. Richard Greene, explains American strategy in this northern Iraqi city. U.S. soldiers will start by making one neighborhood secure. Then, security will spread, like an oil stain.

"It's like we start with a base and then we spread out," Greene tells the colonel. "The main problem is not the terrorists, it's the people who give them information. But if we're there with a presence, they'll see us there and will be less likely to cooperate with the terrorists."

Anyone looking to understand the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq in the last few months need look no farther than Andrew Krepinevich, a prominent analyst who came up with the "oil stain" theory.

I've always thought that the way to win any prolonged war is to win over the local people. People who don't have freedom and the things we take for granted like candy bars, tv, music and even running water will be won over by giving them these things. Once people know what they can have through freedom they'll want it and that will turn them from helping the insurgents to helping us. It isn't a short term strategy and may take a generation to pull off. The kids growing up there now will remember the kindness from our soldiers and contractors and when they grow up may be more sympathetic to us. I think we'll probably have a good chance of winning over people now, but if we continue we could win them over for a long time to come.

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